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The evidence is substantial but still developing. Audubon’s May 2025 anniversary report describes the program’s scale and its first decade of records, while a Summer 2026 feature presents early species-level results and says the complete 10-year analysis is still being prepared. Those early findings should not be mistaken for a completed peer-reviewed study of the entire decade.
What Climate Watch measures—and why a decade matters
Climate Watch began in 2016 with 75 participants in four states. By the time of Audubon’s Summer 2026 feature, more than 1,000 people were taking part in a typical year. Audubon’s May 2025 anniversary account uses a different measure: more than 2,000 community scientists had participated at some point during the program’s history. These figures describe annual participation and cumulative participation, respectively, so they are not interchangeable.
The project was created to test a specific question: when Audubon’s climate models identify places where conditions are becoming more suitable for a target bird, does field observation show that bird arriving or becoming more common there? That question requires repeated observations at selected locations rather than a collection of unplanned sightings.
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Brooke Bateman, Audubon’s senior director of climate and community science, described the ambition this way: “Climate Watch was conceived back in 2016 as a way for us to better understand how birds were shifting with climate change in real time, and how well these shifts aligned with our model predictions.” She also said, “Nobody has really done, at this scale, what we’re doing.”
A decade gives the project enough time to examine movement across multiple seasons and weather cycles. It also allows analysts to separate a one-year fluctuation from a pattern that persists across repeated surveys. The program’s full-decade analysis is not yet complete, however, so the strongest conclusions currently come from the first three years of peer-reviewed data and from preliminary findings reported in 2026.
The program’s documented growth
| Milestone | What Audubon reports | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 launch | 75 participants in four states | The initial pilot scale |
| May 2025 anniversary account | Nearly 100,000 point-count surveys and more than 2,000 community scientists over the program’s history | Cumulative totals through the anniversary report, covering the lower 48 states and Alaska |
| Summer 2026 feature | More than 1,000 annual participants | A typical yearly participation level, not a cumulative total |
How the surveys test climate-suitability predictions
Audubon’s maps combine climate and habitat information correlated with past bird observations to estimate climate suitability for 2025. A map marked “improving” indicates that the modeled climate conditions are expected to become more favorable; “worsening” indicates a predicted decline in climate suitability. Neither label means that a species is guaranteed to occur at a site, find food there, or establish a breeding population.
Climate Watch selects survey squares and points to test those predictions directly. Some selected locations contain a target species already. Others are places where the species is absent but models suggest that it could move there. Comparing observations across these contrasting locations helps researchers ask whether birds are keeping pace with modeled changes.
When and where participants survey
Audubon’s FAQ describes two annual survey windows: winter surveys from January 15 through February 15 and summer surveys from May 15 through June 15. Participants work in designated Climate Watch squares and follow the current survey manual. A historical participation explainer described 12 survey points with five minutes spent at each point; because operating instructions can be revised, anyone participating should use the current manual rather than rely on an older summary.
The project has collected data consistently across the lower 48 states and Alaska. Repeated timing and mapped locations make it possible to account for when observers are present, how long they look, and whether a bird could have been missed.
The 12 target species
| Group | Climate Watch targets |
|---|---|
| Bluebirds | Eastern Bluebird, Mountain Bluebird, Western Bluebird |
| Nuthatches | Brown-headed Nuthatch, Pygmy Nuthatch, Red-breasted Nuthatch, White-breasted Nuthatch |
| Finches and bunting | American Goldfinch, Lesser Goldfinch, Painted Bunting |
| Towhees | Eastern Towhee, Spotted Towhee |
The target list is intentionally limited. Concentrating on 12 species lets Audubon provide identification materials, select points where predictions can be tested, and apply the same analytical framework across regions and years.
What the protocol can estimate
Audubon says the structured design supports estimates of detection, occupancy, and abundance. Detection asks whether a bird was observed during a survey; occupancy estimates the likelihood that a species uses a site while accounting for the possibility that it was present but missed; abundance addresses how many individuals are present. Those distinctions matter because a single missed observation should not be treated as proof that a species is absent.
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What the first decade of evidence shows
Audubon’s May 2025 account reports nearly 100,000 point-count surveys and more than 2,000 community scientists across the program’s history. It also reports nearly 25,000 Eastern Bluebird observations in the first decade’s data. For Painted Buntings, the account gives a concrete change in recorded counts: 87 in 2019 compared with 504 in 2024. Those figures are observations in Climate Watch’s dataset, not a continent-wide population estimate, and the two years should not be read as a simple population-growth rate.
Species are not moving at the same speed
The Summer 2026 feature reports that Western Bluebirds appear to be relocating, while Eastern Bluebirds have shifted their winter habitats more slowly. It also says nuthatches appear reluctant to expand into unfamiliar forests during the breeding season. These are early results from the decade of work, not the final conclusions of a completed peer-reviewed 10-year analysis.
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Sarah Saunders, Audubon’s senior manager of quantitative science, said, “We’re seeing even stronger validation of our climate projections than we did from the first paper.” She added, “And we’re identifying which species are keeping pace with climate change and which are lagging behind.” The wording is important: validation refers to how observations compare with projected climate suitability, while “keeping pace” describes the relationship between modeled conditions and observed range change, not a guarantee that every population is secure.
What the first peer-reviewed study found
The first peer-reviewed Climate Watch study analyzed the program’s first three years of data. Audubon says the study found bird distributions shifting in line with changing climate suitability, with especially clear shifts in winter. The study also highlighted the need to test habitat suitability in newly colonized areas. In other words, a bird can appear in a place whose climate is becoming more favorable without that place yet providing the nesting sites, food, cover, or other resources required for a stable population.
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Why better climate conditions do not guarantee a new bird population
Climate suitability is one filter among several. Audubon’s FAQ explains that habitat and food availability affect whether birds can shift or expand. A model may identify a cooler or otherwise more favorable climate envelope, but forests may be fragmented, native plants may be missing, or insects and seeds may not be available at the right time.
Bird behavior and life history add further constraints. A species may need to learn a migration route, locate a mate, compete with resident birds, or find a suitable nesting cavity. A site can therefore be climatically suitable yet remain unoccupied for years. Conversely, a species may persist in a place where the modeled climate is worsening because local habitat remains productive or because the population has not yet declined enough to disappear from surveys.
The 2026 feature also places the findings in a broader geographic context. Some mountain birds seeking cooler conditions may eventually run out of upslope space. Other studies have reported northward range movements that have not kept pace with rising temperatures, but the feature does not provide a single numerical rate that can be applied to all species. Climate Watch’s value is its ability to examine these differences species by species and site by site.
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Why Climate Watch is different from other bird-observation datasets
Christmas Bird Count, Breeding Bird Survey, and eBird data are all valuable, but they are built for different questions. Climate Watch deliberately chooses target species, mapped squares, and survey periods around model predictions. That structure makes it possible to compare detection and occupancy under similar observation conditions.
| Dataset or program | Typical observation design | Questions it is best suited to answer | How it differs from Climate Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate Watch | Selected squares and points; fixed winter and summer windows; 12 target species | Are birds appearing where modeled climate suitability is improving, and are they keeping pace? | Designed specifically to test climate-suitability predictions and estimate detection, occupancy, and abundance |
| Christmas Bird Count | Organized winter counts in established count areas | How many birds are detected in a standardized community count over time? | Its count-area design is not selected specifically from Climate Watch’s projected change zones |
| Breeding Bird Survey | Standardized breeding-season routes | How do roadside breeding-bird trends change across years and regions? | Uses route-based monitoring rather than Climate Watch’s target squares and model-driven site selection |
| eBird | Observer-submitted checklists from many places and dates | Where and when are species reported, and how do records accumulate? | Broader and less constrained observation coverage; it does not use the same fixed protocol for every record |
These systems can complement one another. A broad observation network may reveal an unexpected sighting, while Climate Watch supplies the repeated, comparable surveys needed to test a specific prediction. The difference is not that one source is useful and another is not; it is that their sampling designs support different kinds of inference.
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Participation is open to community scientists who can identify the target species or are willing to learn them and who can follow the survey protocol. Audubon provides free participant resources, including a printable identification guide for the 12 species and a survey manual. Binoculars can help, but the 2026 feature’s description of a participant using binoculars should not be read as a requirement.
- Read the current materials. Download Audubon’s latest survey manual and identification guide before choosing a date or location. The manual is the authority for current point counts, reporting fields, safety instructions, and any changes to the survey windows.
- Check the season. Plan for the winter window of January 15–February 15 or the summer window of May 15–June 15, subject to the dates listed in the current manual.
- Use a designated square and points. Climate Watch assigns or identifies squares selected for the project’s model-testing design. Do not substitute an attractive birding location that is outside the assigned sampling plan.
- Practice target-species identification. Review the guide’s field marks and learn the calls that are relevant in your region. If an identification is uncertain, record the observation according to the manual’s uncertainty rules rather than guessing.
- Follow the timing and effort exactly. Complete the prescribed number of points and the required observation period at each point. Consistent effort is what allows analysts to distinguish a real difference from a difference in how long people searched.
- Submit every required field. Report detections and non-detections, along with the date, point, and effort information requested by the program. A quiet point is still useful data when it is documented correctly.
- Protect birds and habitat. Keep a safe distance, avoid flushing birds, stay within legal access areas, and follow local land-management rules. The protocol cannot justify trespassing or disturbing nesting birds.
How to read the findings without overstating them
Model agreement is evidence, not proof of a single cause
When observations line up with predicted climate suitability, that supports the model’s usefulness. It does not show that temperature alone caused every local movement. Land-use change, forest composition, predators, disease, competition, migration behavior, and food supply can all influence where a bird is detected.
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Early decade results are not the final decade verdict
Audubon’s Summer 2026 feature presents early findings from the first decade and says an updated full-decade analysis is still being prepared. The first three-year study is peer reviewed; the species-specific observations reported in the 2026 feature should be attributed to that feature and should not be described as a completed peer-reviewed analysis of all ten years.
Counts are not automatically population estimates
A rise from 87 Painted Bunting counts in 2019 to 504 in 2024 is a notable change in the program’s recorded observations, but it does not by itself establish a fivefold increase in the species’ total population. Changes in participation, weather, detectability, and site coverage can affect counts. Climate Watch’s analytical methods are designed to account for those issues more carefully than a raw tally can.
What the next analysis needs to clarify
The completed decade analysis should allow Audubon to evaluate whether the early patterns persist across all available years and regions. Key questions include which species consistently track improving suitability, which lag, whether winter movements differ from breeding-season expansion, and whether newly occupied locations provide adequate habitat and food.
Those questions matter for conservation planning. A map showing improving climate suitability may identify places worth protecting before a species arrives, while evidence that a bird is lagging behind may point to barriers that climate projections alone cannot reveal. Climate Watch cannot answer every ecological question, but its repeated, model-linked surveys provide a way to connect broad projections with what observers find on the ground.
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