Audubon’s Climate Watch turns ordinary birdwatching into standardized field data. Volunteers count selected bluebirds, nuthatches and other target species at fixed points, then submit complete checklists that scientists use to test and refine climate-based range projections. The counts can show whether projected suitable areas match observed distributions; one survey cannot, by itself, prove that climate change caused a particular bird to appear or disappear.
What Audubon Climate Watch measures
Climate Watch is a community-science survey run by the National Audubon Society. Since 2016, volunteers have collected observations in locations chosen to be relevant to Audubon’s climate-based projections for bird ranges. Instead of asking participants to report any bird anywhere, the project uses a defined sampling design and a short list of target species.
The design gives scientists observations that can be compared with maps predicting where climatic conditions should be suitable for particular birds. When observations and projections agree, confidence in the model increases. When they disagree, the difference can reveal places where a model needs refinement or where other factors affect a species’ distribution.
Climate Watch is open to birders across the United States. It is intended to be accessible to people who can identify the selected birds, not only to professional ornithologists.
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How a Climate Watch survey works
A defined 10-kilometer square
Each survey takes place inside a designated square measuring 10 kilometers by 10 kilometers. The location is selected through Audubon’s survey-planning resources so that observations can be associated with the climate-projection work. Working within a fixed area makes results from different volunteers and years more comparable than casual sightings gathered without a common sampling frame.
Twelve five-minute point counts
The standard survey consists of 12 point counts. At each point, the observer records birds detected during a five-minute period. Detection can include birds seen or heard, provided the observer follows the current participant instructions for identifying and recording them. The repeated points provide multiple observations within one square instead of relying on a single encounter.
Two seasonal windows
Audubon’s current program page describes two survey periods:
- Winter: January 15 through February 15.
- Summer: May 15 through June 15.
These windows are operational details, not permanent rules. Audubon may adjust timing, target species or reporting procedures, so participants should read the current Climate Watch instructions before scheduling a count.
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Target species vary by location
The birds surveyed depend on the square’s location. Target species include bluebirds, nuthatches, towhees, goldfinches and Painted Bunting. The bluebird group includes Eastern, Western and Mountain Bluebirds. The nuthatch group includes White-breasted, Red-breasted, Brown-headed and Pygmy Nuthatches.
Because not every target occurs in every region, the planning materials tell a participant which species apply to a chosen square. A volunteer should not assume that a familiar species is a target everywhere.
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Why Audubon chose bluebirds and nuthatches
A useful climate-model test needs enough observations to distinguish a real geographic pattern from a handful of chance sightings. Audubon therefore selected species that are relatively widespread and identifiable. A bird that occurs across a broad area can be encountered in many survey squares, while an identifiable call or appearance makes participation possible for a wider range of birders.
The approach also balances scientific usefulness with access. If only rare or highly specialized species were eligible, the project would produce fewer observations and require a much smaller pool of expert observers. Commoner target birds allow volunteers to contribute in more parts of the country while preserving a consistent species list for analysis.
The project’s target list is not a claim that these birds are the only species affected by climate. It is a practical set of indicators for testing projections with repeatable observations.
How counts test climate-based range projections
From a projection map to a field question
Audubon’s climate work produces projections of where conditions may be suitable for particular birds. A Climate Watch square becomes a field test of that projection: are the target birds observed where the model indicates suitable conditions, and are they absent or less frequently detected where suitability is lower?
Using 12 standardized points helps turn that question into comparable data. The observations are linked to a known area, season and effort level rather than being treated as an isolated sighting with unknown search effort.
Agreement, disagreement and model refinement
When many squares show observations that line up with projected distributions, the data support the model’s usefulness. Systematic mismatches can indicate that a projection is too broad, too narrow or missing an important factor. Audubon’s FAQ describes the data as useful for validating and refining models, identifying areas of high climatic suitability and informing conservation decisions.
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The result is evidence gathering and model checking, not a one-survey attribution experiment. A bird’s presence or absence can also reflect habitat, food, predators, disease, migration conditions, weather during the count and the observer’s ability to detect it. Climate Watch helps evaluate broad distribution patterns; it does not establish that climate change caused one individual bird to be in one location on one day.
What the project has produced so far
Several published figures describe different periods and different units. They should not be combined into one participation total or treated as equivalent measures.
| Period and source | Measure | Reported figure | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early pilot, described by Audubon on April 14, 2017 | Volunteers | About 300 | An early-period participation figure, not a current total |
| Previous year described in the April 2017 Audubon article | Bluebirds counted across three species | More than 1,300 | Birds observed in that early period, not volunteers or surveys |
| January and June survey periods in 2017, National Audubon Society | Volunteers | More than 600 | Participation during those 2017 periods |
| National Audubon Society decade retrospective published in 2025 | Point-count surveys | Nearly 100,000 | Cumulative volunteer survey effort reported by the retrospective |
Audubon’s retrospective also reports that previous peer-reviewed research found six bluebird and nuthatch species shifting their ranges during breeding and non-breeding seasons. Audubon says those findings validated the accuracy of its climate projections. Its results page says the first peer-reviewed study used the first three years of Climate Watch data. Those statements summarize research findings at the program level; they do not turn an individual observation into proof of climate causation.
How to participate
1. Read the current participant instructions
Start with Audubon’s current Climate Watch participant page and survey-planning resources. Confirm the active season, the square-selection process, the target species for your area and the reporting workflow. The 2017 account is useful for understanding the project’s origins, but its operational details may no longer be current.
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2. Choose a survey square and target list
Use the planning materials to identify an eligible 10-kilometer-by-10-kilometer square and see which target birds apply there. Check access before the survey date: public land rules, private-property permission, parking and safe walking routes are your responsibility.
3. Schedule within the correct window
For the current schedule described by Audubon, plan a winter count between January 15 and February 15 or a summer count between May 15 and June 15. Leave enough time to complete all 12 points in the same square and to submit the records afterward. If the participant page lists a revised window, follow that newer instruction.
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4. Complete all 12 five-minute points
At each designated point, conduct the five-minute count and record detections according to the protocol. Keep the effort consistent: do not quietly extend one point because birds are active or shorten another because conditions are slow. Note the information the current form requests, such as the point location and survey date.
5. Submit a complete checklist
The 2017 article says Climate Watch sightings were submitted through eBird. Audubon’s current FAQ emphasizes complete checklists: record every bird detected during the count, not only a target species. A complete list helps researchers interpret a missing target. “No bluebird reported” means something different when the observer recorded many other species carefully than when the observer submitted only a target-bird sighting.
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Before finishing, check that the square, date, season, point information and species entries match the instructions. Accurate, complete metadata lets the observations be compared with other squares and with the model’s assumptions.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Equipment and field preparation
Audubon’s materials describe a protocol and reporting system rather than a required binocular specification. Binoculars can make distant birds easier to identify, but they are a general field aid, not an officially stated Climate Watch requirement. Bring only equipment you can use without disrupting the timed count.
Preparation matters more than specialized gear. Review the identification of the target species in your region, especially similar bluebirds and nuthatches. Check weather and daylight conditions, dress for the season, carry a charged phone or another way to record observations, and plan a safe route between points. If you are uncertain about a bird’s identity, follow the project’s current guidance rather than guessing.
Why complete lists and standardized effort matter
Presence is usually easier to document than absence. A detected bird produces a direct record, but a failure to report a bird could mean it was absent, overlooked, silent, outside the observer’s view or not recorded because the list was incomplete. Recording every species and maintaining the prescribed five-minute effort gives analysts information about what else was detectable at the site.
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The 12-point design also spreads effort through the square. One point may be unusually quiet or unusually rich; multiple points reduce the influence of that single location. Standardized timing and area do not eliminate all variation, but they make it possible to model detection and compare observations more fairly.
Climate Watch compared with other bird-data programs
Audubon describes Climate Watch and other community-science datasets as complementary. The distinctions below concern design and purpose, not a ranking of which program is more accurate or scientifically valuable.
| Program | Sampling design | Timing or coverage | Primary use in this context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate Watch | Targeted 10-kilometer squares with 12 five-minute point counts | Current Audubon schedule lists January 15–February 15 and May 15–June 15 windows | Test and refine climate-based range projections using selected target species |
| Christmas Bird Count | Community bird counts organized under that program’s own count design | Seasonal count period set by the program | Provides a complementary community-science dataset rather than a Climate Watch projection test |
| Breeding Bird Survey | Uses its own standardized roadside survey design | Breeding-season coverage under that program’s schedule | Provides another structured source of bird-distribution information |
| eBird | Individual birders submit checklists with varying locations and effort | Year-round submissions | Climate Watch uses eBird reporting, while the broader database supplies complementary observations |
Climate Watch’s distinctive feature is that its sampling locations and target species are selected in relation to climate projections. That focus makes it particularly suited to a model-checking question, while broader programs can contribute context and additional records.
What volunteers can and cannot conclude from a count
A count can contribute to
- Testing whether observed distributions resemble projected areas of climatic suitability.
- Finding geographic areas where projections and observations repeatedly disagree.
- Improving future model calibration and informing conservation planning.
- Adding consistent, documented observations to a long-term dataset.
A count cannot establish by itself
- That climate change caused one bird’s presence, absence or movement.
- That a target bird is absent from an entire square because it was not detected during one five-minute period.
- That a projection is correct or incorrect based on a single point, observer or season.
- That Climate Watch should replace other bird-monitoring programs.
Strong conclusions come from patterns across many standardized observations, seasons and years, interpreted with information about detection and other ecological factors.
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The project’s scale depends on volunteers collecting observations in many places at the same time. Brooke Bateman, who ran the project in the 2017 account, said, “We wouldn’t be able to do it without the network of volunteers across the U.S.” She also said, “We want Climate Watch to be for everybody.” Those goals explain the emphasis on recognizable species, a repeatable five-minute protocol and instructions that extend participation beyond professional researchers.
Nicole Michel, identified in that account as an Audubon quantitative ecologist leading Climate Watch’s statistical work, described the project this way: “From a modeling standpoint, we’re doing something new that nobody else is doing.” The novelty is not that volunteers observe birds; it is the deliberate connection between volunteer counts, targeted locations and climate-based distribution projections.
Why a careful count is worth doing
A person who completes one survey contributes one small piece of a much larger comparison between predicted and observed bird distributions. The value increases when the observer follows the same steps as everyone else, submits a complete checklist and keeps the survey’s date, location and effort clear. Over time, thousands of such standardized contributions can reveal whether projections remain aligned with where birds are found and where they are changing.
Climate Watch therefore offers a practical way to participate in climate science without claiming more certainty than the data provide. It turns a focused bird count into evidence that can help researchers improve models and conservation decisions while leaving causal conclusions to the full body of ecological analysis.
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