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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsYes—Sonic the Hedgehog 3 won the U.S. and Canadian opening-weekend race against Mufasa: The Lion King. The Associated Press reported studio estimates of $62 million for Sonic 3 and $35 million for Mufasa on December 22, 2024. That answers the opening-weekend question, not which film led every holiday frame or the full theatrical run.
What experts projected before release
The prediction developed as the films approached their December 2024 release. Forecasts shifted over time, and the published ranges overlapped, so the expected advantage for Sonic 3 was not a guarantee.
- November 29: ComicBook.com summarized early tracking at about $55 million domestic for Sonic 3 and $50 million for Mufasa, while noting the estimates could change before release. Read the early tracking report.
- December 5: Boxoffice Pro published a $65 million–$85 million domestic opening-weekend range for Sonic 3, against $55 million–$75 million for Mufasa. Because the ranges overlapped, they suggested a modest Sonic edge rather than a certain outcome. See Boxoffice Pro’s forecast.
- December 21: TheWrap reported that Sonic 3 was pacing toward $70.5 million and Mufasa toward $35 million. Those were projections, not the later studio estimates. Read TheWrap’s report.
Who won the opening weekend?
The AP’s December 22 report put the U.S. and Canadian opening-weekend estimates at $62 million for Sonic 3 and $35 million for Mufasa. TheWrap also reported those studio estimates. The outcome matched the direction of the final pre-release projections, though the reported Sonic estimate was below TheWrap’s December 21 pacing figure.
Paramount distribution chief Chris Aronson told the AP: “We felt strongly that the marketplace could support both movies and we’re certainly holding up our side of the bargain.” Read the AP’s December 22 report.
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Why reports can name different holiday leaders
The films’ ranking depended on the period being counted. Christmas Day 2024 fell on a Wednesday, so box-office coverage distinguished the standard three-day weekend from the five-day Christmas frame. In its December 29 report, TheWrap said Sonic 3 led the three-day weekend, while Mufasa led the five-day holiday period. That does not change the opening-weekend result: Sonic was ahead in the December 20–22 frame.
Read TheWrap’s December 29 report.
Did Sonic stay ahead afterward?
No. The AP reported that Mufasa topped the North American box-office chart in the first weekend of 2025. A later chart lead reflects a different point in the films’ runs; it does not reverse Sonic’s earlier opening-weekend win. See the AP’s box-office coverage.
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The films’ cumulative worldwide totals are another comparison. SEGA announced on January 22, 2025, that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 had passed $425 million worldwide, surpassing the $405 million worldwide total for Sonic the Hedgehog 2 cited in the same announcement. Those figures describe a later global milestone for Sonic; they are not opening-weekend numbers or a direct comparison with Mufasa’s total. Read SEGA’s announcement.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the box-office comparison
“Who won?” has a useful answer only when the territory and time window are clear. The original forecast was about the domestic opening weekend. The later holiday reports covered different weekend and holiday frames, while SEGA’s milestone was worldwide and cumulative.
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| Comparison | Reported result | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-release forecast, December 5 (Boxoffice Pro) | Sonic 3: $65 million–$85 million; Mufasa: $55 million–$75 million | Projected domestic opening-weekend ranges; they overlap. |
| Opening weekend, December 20–22 (AP studio estimates) | Sonic 3: $62 million; Mufasa: $35 million | Estimated U.S. and Canadian opening sales; Sonic led. |
| Christmas period, reported December 29 (TheWrap) | Sonic 3 led the three-day weekend; Mufasa led the five-day frame | Different holiday windows produce different leaders. |
| First weekend of 2025 (AP) | Mufasa topped the North American chart | A later chart position, not the opening-weekend result. |
| Sonic global milestone, January 22, 2025 (SEGA) | Sonic 3 passed $425 million worldwide; Sonic 2 had reached $405 million worldwide | Cumulative global milestone for Sonic, not a head-to-head total with Mufasa. |
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