Before the 66th Grammy Awards, Axios forecast Victoria Monét for Best New Artist and Taylor Swift’s Midnights for Album of the Year. Both predictions came true: Monét and Swift won on February 4, 2024, in Los Angeles. Axios also named SZA’s SOS its artistic pick for Album of the Year, distinguishing the album it thought would win from the one it preferred.
What Axios predicted before the 2024 Grammys
Axios published its forecast on January 30, 2024, five days before the ceremony. It picked Monét for Best New Artist and Swift’s Midnights for Album of the Year. These were the outlet’s predictions, not a poll of Grammy voters or a measure of industry consensus. Axios’s January 30, 2024 predictions
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Album of the Year: Taylor Swift’s Midnights
Axios’s rationale focused on Swift’s high-profile 2023: she had two No. 1 albums and a blockbuster concert film. The outlet argued that the Academy would be unlikely to pass up the moment. That was a forecast based on public prominence, not evidence about how individual voting members intended to cast ballots.
Axios separately called SZA’s SOS its choice for the best album in the field. That distinction matters: its predicted winner was Midnights, while its artistic preference was SOS.
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Best New Artist: Victoria Monét
Axios pointed to Monét’s recognition across categories, describing her as the only Best New Artist nominee also nominated in one of the other Big Four categories. That was the outlet’s stated reason for its pick, not proof that cross-category nominations caused her win.
Who won the 2024 Grammy Awards?
Taylor Swift won Album of the Year for Midnights, and Victoria Monét won Best New Artist. The ceremony was the 66th Annual Grammy Awards, held February 4, 2024, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The Recording Academy’s winners and nominees list
Album of the Year nominees
The category brought together eight albums spanning different artists and styles:
- Jon Batiste, World Music Radio
- boygenius, the record
- Miley Cyrus, Endless Summer Vacation
- Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd
- Janelle Monáe, The Age of Pleasure
- Olivia Rodrigo, GUTS
- Taylor Swift, Midnights
- SZA, SOS
The Recording Academy’s album feature discusses the nominees individually and notes that the vinyl edition of boygenius’s the record has a locked groove. That is a format detail, not evidence about current stock or price. The Academy’s Album of the Year nominee feature
What the forecast can—and cannot—tell us
The 2024 result made Axios’s two category picks correct. It does not establish that either outcome was certain, that other forecasters agreed, or that the reasons Axios gave determined the votes. The available published results identify winners and nominees, not individual ballots or voters’ motives.
The awards are selected by the Recording Academy’s voting membership. For the 66th ceremony, eligible recordings were released from October 1, 2022, through September 15, 2023; final-round voting ran from December 14, 2023, through January 4, 2024. The Recording Academy’s 66th Awards season announcement
The nomination field also showed broad recognition: SZA received nine nominations and Monét seven, among the leaders for the 66th Awards. Those totals provide context for their presence in the race, but they do not reveal how members voted in either category.
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