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Why Narendra Modi’s Varanasi Victory Fell Short of Expectations in 2024

An excerpt from Ashutosh’s Reclaiming Bharat argues that opposition gains and residents’ concerns about modernization help explain Modi’s narrower 2024 victory in Varanasi.
Opened Runtime3 min Written byDocumentaryTube Team
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Narendra Modi won Varanasi in 2024, but by a far smaller margin than the landslide some expected. In an excerpt from Reclaiming Bharat: What Changed in 2024 and What Lies Ahead, author Ashutosh argues that stronger opposition support, the Congress–Samajwadi Party alliance and residents’ unease about changes to the city help explain the result. His account offers a political interpretation, not a study measuring how much each factor affected votes.

What happened in Varanasi in 2024?

Ashutosh’s excerpt, published by Scroll on May 1, 2025, reports that Modi received 612,970 votes and Congress candidate Ajay Rai received 460,457, giving Modi a margin of 152,513. The figures here are those reported in the excerpt; they have not been independently checked against an official election result record.

The result was striking in the context of campaign expectations. Ashutosh writes that the BJP hoped for a margin exceeding ten lakh and cites the slogan “Abki baar, 10 lakh paar.” That is the passage’s account of expectations, not evidence of a formal party commitment.

How did Ajay Rai’s support change?

The excerpt presents Rai’s rising vote total as one sign of the stronger challenge to Modi. It reports these results for Rai across three elections:

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Election year Votes reported for Ajay Rai Vote share reported
2014 75,614 7.34%
2019 152,548 14.38%
2024 460,457 40.74%

These totals and shares are attributed to Ashutosh’s excerpt, rather than presented as independently verified figures. The author also reports that Modi’s 2024 vote total was 61,694 lower than in 2019.

What explanations does Ashutosh offer?

A stronger opposition alliance

Ashutosh points to the Congress–Samajwadi Party alliance’s stronger performance in Uttar Pradesh and to Rai’s increased support in Varanasi. The account treats those developments as part of the explanation for the closer contest, but it does not isolate their effect on the result.

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Intensive BJP campaigning

The excerpt also describes extensive BJP mobilization and campaign activity by senior leaders in Varanasi. Ashutosh’s point is that the contest drew substantial effort even as the margin fell short of the level the party reportedly hoped to achieve.

Unease about modernization and the city’s identity

Ashutosh argues that some residents were dissatisfied with modernization they felt had changed Varanasi’s character. He discusses projects such as the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, widened roads, cleaner ghats and an airport highway. The excerpt reports roughly Rs 48,000 crore in projects sanctioned and about Rs 41,000 crore spent over a decade, but does not identify the underlying project or accounting records for those sums.

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This is the author’s interpretation of how development and local identity may have figured in the election. The excerpt does not provide survey evidence showing how widespread those views were or how they translated into votes.

What the excerpt establishes—and what it does not

Ashutosh’s account frames the result as a surprise: Varanasi had been treated as an easy win, with attention focused more on the size of Modi’s margin than on whether he would win. The excerpt brings together reported vote figures, the opposition alliance, campaigning and perceived changes to the city as possible parts of the story.

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  • It reports election totals, vote shares and campaign context, but those figures are not independently verified here against official records.
  • It advances explanations for the narrower margin but does not use survey evidence or a causal research design to determine how much each factor mattered.
  • It reports project-spending figures without identifying their underlying accounting source.

The distinction matters: the excerpt is useful as a political argument about what changed in Varanasi, but it cannot by itself establish which factor drove a particular number of votes.

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Which book is the excerpt from?

The passage is from Reclaiming Bharat: What Changed in 2024 and What Lies Ahead by Ashutosh, published by Westland. Its focus is the gap between expectations of a sweeping victory and Modi’s reported margin in Varanasi. The excerpt also attributes a June 11, 2024 statement to Rahul Gandhi: “Had my sister [Priyanka] contested the Varanasi seat, the prime minister would have been defeated by 2 to 3 lakh votes.” That is a hypothetical political claim, not evidence of what a different candidate would have achieved.

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Read the Scroll excerpt by Ashutosh, published May 1, 2025.

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