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Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar Chances Took a Hit After the 2026 BAFTA Surprise—Here’s What Happened

Robert Aramayo’s BAFTA win unsettled predictions about Timothée Chalamet, but it did not decide the Oscar. Here’s how the race unfolded and ended.
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Robert Aramayo won the 2026 BAFTA Leading Actor award for I Swear, while Timothée Chalamet was nominated for Marty Supreme. The result briefly unsettled the Oscar race, but the awards are separate: at the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026, Michael B. Jordan won Actor in a Leading Role for Sinners; Chalamet was an Oscar nominee.

What happened at the 2026 BAFTAs?

BAFTA named Robert Aramayo its Leading Actor winner for I Swear. Chalamet was among the nominees for Marty Supreme, which was also nominated for BAFTA Best Film. The official records show a different winner from the one many awards-watchers had expected, not a change to the Academy’s rules or a decision about the Oscars.

See BAFTA’s 2026 Leading Actor results and its film results.

Why was the result seen as a blow to Chalamet?

Before the BAFTAs, Chalamet was widely perceived as the Oscar frontrunner after wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. In its March 3, 2026 preview, the Associated Press said the BAFTA result muddied the race. That was an assessment of momentum at the time—not a measured change in Chalamet’s odds or a guarantee about the Academy vote. The AP also pointed to Michael B. Jordan’s Actor Awards win as another development in the contest. Read the AP’s contemporaneous Oscar preview.

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Did the BAFTA result predict the Oscar winner?

No. BAFTA’s Leading Actor award and the Academy Award for Actor in a Leading Role are distinct honors decided by different voting bodies. Aramayo’s BAFTA win did not determine the Academy’s result. At the Oscars, Jordan won for Sinners; Chalamet was nominated for Marty Supreme. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony took place on March 15, 2026. The Academy’s official 2026 ceremony page lists the winner, nominees and date.

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How the race looked then—and how it ended

Award or moment Result
2026 BAFTA Leading Actor Robert Aramayo won for I Swear; Timothée Chalamet was nominated for Marty Supreme. BAFTA results
Contemporary Oscar-race assessment On March 3, 2026, AP described Chalamet as widely perceived as the leader after Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, then said BAFTA had muddied the race. AP preview
98th Academy Awards, March 15, 2026 Michael B. Jordan won Actor in a Leading Role for Sinners; Chalamet was nominated for Marty Supreme. Academy results

Contemporary reaction captured the surprise: The Ringer framed its February 23, 2026 analysis with the question, “Wait, Timothée Chalamet lost?” That reflected the immediate awards conversation, not proof that the BAFTA result caused his Oscar loss. The Ringer’s BAFTA takeaways.

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