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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →The “53% or more” figure in the headline was a forecast, not a result. Trade reporting published before the March 28–30, 2025 weekend projected Disney’s live-action Snow White would fall to roughly $20 million in its second weekend, about 53% below its opening of roughly $42 million. The weekend that actually followed was worse. The Associated Press reported approximately $14.2 million, a 66% drop, and the film finished second behind A Working Man.
Where the 53% number came from
The percentage is simple arithmetic applied to a projection. TheWrap’s March 27, 2025 preview said the film had opened to about $42 million and might earn around $20 million, perhaps a little more, in its second weekend. A $20 million weekend measured against an opening of about $42.2 million is a decline of roughly 53%. The Numbers records the film’s opening weekend, the one ending March 23, 2025, at $42,206,415 in domestic release, which matches the rounded figure in the preview.
| # | Preview | Product | Price | |
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| 1 |
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Snow White - Blu-ray + DVD + Digital | $15.02 | Buy on Amazon |
| 2 |
![Snow White (2025) [Blu-ray]](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51ARbbuo01L._SL160_.jpg)
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Snow White (2025) [Blu-ray] | $24.95 | Buy on Amazon |
| 3 |
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Snow White - 4K + Blu-ray + Digital | $40.00 | Buy on Amazon |
Two things follow from that. First, the 53% figure depends entirely on the $20 million estimate; the headline did not describe a measured drop. Second, the estimate was a few days old by the time the weekend began, and forecasts of this kind are built from weekday grosses and comparable titles rather than from the weekend itself.
Projection versus actual second weekend
The two numbers should be kept apart. The table below uses the figures as reported, with the source and date attached to each.
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#1 Best Overall
- Experience this musical, live-action reimagining of Walt Disney?s groundbreaking animated classic. Follow Snow White?s adventure as she journeys into magical woods to escape the Evil Queen and meets the beloved Bashful, Sleepy, Sneezy, Happy, Dopey, Grumpy and Doc who join her quest to restore the kingdom.
| Measure | Pre-weekend projection | Reported second-weekend result |
|---|---|---|
| Second-weekend gross (domestic) | About $20 million, “perhaps a little more” (TheWrap, March 27, 2025) | About $14.2 million (The Associated Press, March 30, 2025); The Numbers records $14,331,715 |
| Decline from the roughly $42 million opening | About 53% | 66% (The Associated Press; The Numbers) |
| Weekend ranking | Expected to hold first place (AP’s framing of expectations) | Second place, behind A Working Man, which opened to $15.2 million (AP, March 30, 2025) |
The gap between the two figures is about 13 percentage points, and it is the gap that matters for the headline. A reader comparing “53% or more” with the eventual result should read the 53% as the lower bound the forecast implied, and the 66% as the measured outcome.
Why the forecast and the result diverged
The reporting from the period does not establish a single cause. TheWrap pointed to the film’s family and female audience reception as a possible source of staying power, which suggested the drop might be softer than the 53% scenario implied. That was analysis written before the weekend, and the weekend did not bear it out. Commentary from That Park Place, published March 28, 2025, argued that the headline understated how weak the decline looked and offered views on audience motives. That is opinion, not measured evidence, and it should be read as such.
What the record does show is a steeper fall than the projection, arriving in a crowded weekend. AP’s March 30 report quoted Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian, who said: “Hopefully ‘Minecraft’ can help the marketplace level up since after some underwhelming weekends at the box office we need to get some momentum back at the multiplex.” AP attributed the estimated domestic rankings to Comscore and noted that final domestic figures were still pending at publication time, which is standard for a Sunday report.
Rank #2
- Experience this musical, live-action reimagining of Walt Disney's groundbreaking animated classic.
Opening and early-week context
The early numbers are useful for judging how the second weekend was expected to go. TheWrap’s preview reported an opening of about $42 million and $8.6 million from Monday through Wednesday, which put the film at $50.8 million domestic after six days. Those weekday totals are what projections of this kind lean on, so a film that opens big and then drops sharply on weekdays is a warning sign that a 50% or larger second-weekend decline is plausible.
What the final totals show, and what they do not
The Numbers’ database record gives the film’s reported totals as of its current entry. Figures are shown as recorded in that database and can be revised.
| Measure | Figure | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic gross | $87,203,963 | The Numbers; box-office gross, not studio receipts |
| International gross | $118,475,500 | The Numbers; box-office gross |
| Worldwide gross | $205,679,463 | The Numbers; the sum of domestic and international |
| Production budget | $269.4 million (The Numbers); “more than $250 million” (AP) | A production-cost estimate. It does not include marketing or distribution costs |
Gross totals and budgets are not profit. A worldwide gross of about $205.7 million set against a production budget of $269.4 million does not on its own establish whether the film made money, because studio receipts are a share of gross, marketing spend is separate, and the reported budget is itself an estimate. The record supports stating the scale of the box office, not a loss figure.
Rank #3
- Experience this musical, live-action reimagining of Walt Disney?s groundbreaking animated classic. Follow Snow White?s adventure as she journeys into magical woods to escape the Evil Queen and meets the beloved Bashful, Sleepy, Sneezy, Happy, Dopey, Grumpy and Doc who join her quest to restore the kingdom.
Home video
The Numbers lists May 13, 2025 as the video release date, distributed through Walt Disney Home Entertainment. The record does not specify a format, so no particular edition or disc type should be assumed.
How to read a box-office projection
- Check the date. A pre-weekend projection is an estimate made on weekday data; it is not the weekend result.
- Check the base. A percentage drop is measured against the opening weekend’s figure, and the opening figure itself can be a preliminary estimate that later changes.
- Check the market. Domestic and worldwide totals tell different stories. Here the domestic second weekend is the one in question.
- Check the source type. Weekend rankings from Sunday reporting are estimates until final figures are published on Monday.
- Keep gross separate from budget. Box-office gross, production budget and profit are three different measures.
Applied to this case, the 53% headline was a reasonable reading of the weekday numbers at the time, and it understated the weekend that followed. The measured second-weekend drop was 66%.
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