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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Mike Duncan’s answer is that American global influence has passed its high-water mark, but the United States remains enormously powerful—and its decline is not inevitable. In a September 23, 2025 interview with Rolling Stone, the historian and host of Revolutions used the Roman Republic as a warning about political norms and concentrated power, not as proof that the United States is destined to follow Rome’s path.
What does Mike Duncan mean by the decline of the American empire?
Duncan’s claim is about diminished influence and confidence, not the imminent disappearance of the United States as a great power. In the interview, he said the country was “still enormously powerful” and “not on the verge of disappearing from the great power equations of the Earth,” while adding that it “sure feels like” it is pushing toward some kind of terminal failure. Those are Duncan’s judgments, not a measured finding or a prediction with a stated probability.
He sees a decline in U.S. reliability as one important sign. In his account, the Iraq War under George W. Bush damaged American soft power; he saw some restoration of confidence under Barack Obama, then renewed uncertainty under Donald Trump, particularly around commitments to allies and partners on treaties and trade. The interview presents this as Duncan’s political interpretation, not as a quantified measure of international confidence.
Why does he compare the United States with the Roman Republic?
Duncan’s central historical analogy is to the Roman Republic’s breakdown. He highlights widening economic inequality, disputes over citizenship and political participation, and political leaders abandoning norms that had constrained competition. He also points to the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, which he characterizes as an armed insurrection, as a warning about what can happen when political actors reject electoral defeat.
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The comparison is about possible mechanisms and warning signs, not institutional identity. The United States is a modern constitutional republic; the interview does not establish that it will repeat Rome’s trajectory.
Institutions can remain while practical constraints weaken
Duncan stresses that Rome’s transition from republic to imperial rule did not require the immediate removal of republican forms. The machinery of government remained outwardly recognizable while power concentrated in one person. His warning is that elections and formal institutions may continue to exist even as the constraints that make them meaningful erode in practice.
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How does Duncan explain the conditions that can produce a revolution?
Duncan emphasizes the role of elite defections as well as popular unrest. In his synthesis, demonstrations or popular anger alone often fail to overturn a regime; the loss of support from wealthy or powerful insiders can alter the balance. He invokes the American, French, and Russian revolutions as cases in which elite participation accompanied mass unrest. This is a broad interpretive summary, not a complete scholarly account of each revolution.
He also describes what he calls a “Great Idiot Theory of Revolutions”: governments can contribute to upheaval when they repeatedly act incompetently, fail to adapt, and impose deeply unpopular policies. The counterweight is that political systems can adapt. For Duncan, history can warn about risks without fixing the outcome.
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Does Duncan think the United States is doomed?
No. Duncan describes himself as “congenitally an optimist” and concludes that “we’re not doomed, and there are ways out of this, because there’s ways out of anything.” His position combines concern about the direction of U.S. politics and influence with the belief that a different future remains possible.
The interview supplies no statistic establishing a measured decline in American power. Its value is as Duncan’s historically informed interpretation of the risks he sees—not as quantitative proof that the United States is in terminal decline.
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What to read next on Duncan’s Roman Republic comparison
For a fuller account of the Roman history behind his analogy, see Mike Duncan’s The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic. Its publisher describes the book as covering 146–78 BC, including inequality, citizenship and voting rights, corruption, and political conflict before the Republic’s fall. It offers historical context, not evidence that America will follow the same course. Hachette Book Group’s book page lists print and audio formats.
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