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The 97th Academy Awards are no longer a forecast: Anora won Best Picture on March 2, 2025. Before the ceremony, the strongest case was a close race between Anora and Conclave, after Emilia Pérez lost momentum. My “should win” choice is also Anora, but that is an editorial judgment rather than an Academy prediction.
What the 2025 Oscars actually decided
The ceremony, hosted by Conan O’Brien at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood, honored films released in 2024. The Academy’s official results list Anora as Best Picture winner (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences).
Anora won five awards overall, including Best Picture, directing, original screenplay and film editing. Sean Baker received all three of those individual awards for the film, according to the Associated Press (AP winners list, March 3, 2025).
Leading acting winners
- Best Actor: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
- Best Actress: Mikey Madison, Anora
- Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Other notable winners were Flow for animated feature, I’m Still Here for international feature and Paul Tazewell for costume design for Wicked.
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What the pre-show prediction meant
A “will win” answer must be dated to the information available before the ceremony. In its February 25, 2025 preview, the Associated Press described a volatile top-category contest: “After the first frontrunner and lead nominee, ‘Emilia Pérez,’ became engulfed in controversy, ‘Anora’ ran the table with a trio of precursor guild honors. Then ‘Conclave’ swooped in to win at the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards.” The AP article was written by Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle (AP predictions, February 25, 2025).
The leading pre-ceremony cases
| Film | Why it was in the conversation | Best Picture result |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | Three precursor guild honors gave it a strong late-season pattern. | Winner |
| Conclave | Its BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild victories made it a serious rival. | Nominee |
| Emilia Pérez | It began as the lead nominee and early frontrunner, then faced controversy and weakened momentum. | Nominee |
Those signals were evidence for a forecast, not a mechanical formula. Guild prizes and BAFTA can indicate industry support, but they do not determine the Academy’s final ballot.
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All ten Best Picture nominees
| Nominee | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Anora | Won Best Picture |
| The Brutalist | Nominee |
| A Complete Unknown | Nominee |
| Conclave | Nominee |
| Dune: Part Two | Nominee |
| Emilia Pérez | Nominee |
| I’m Still Here | Nominee |
| Nickel Boys | Nominee |
| The Substance | Nominee |
| Wicked | Nominee |
The official nominations list was published January 23, 2025 (Oscars.com nominations list).
Who should have won?
“Should win” asks for a critical preference, not a prediction of Academy behavior. My choice is Anora: its combination of performance, directing, screenplay and editing made a coherent case for Best Picture, and the film’s ultimate five-award haul confirms broad recognition without turning that recognition into a rule about artistic value.
Rank #3
A different critic could reasonably choose Conclave, The Brutalist or another nominee. That disagreement belongs to taste and standards—such as narrative construction, direction, acting ensemble or formal ambition—not to the official results table.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How Oscar voting shaped the uncertainty
The Academy says Best Picture nominations are selected by eligible members from all 19 branches. In most other categories, nomination voting is conducted by the relevant branch or eligible voters. Every voting round uses secret online ballots tabulated by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Rank #4
- Ben Leonberg
For the final round, “All eligible Academy members may participate in Oscars voting in the final round. Members may vote in all 24 award categories,” according to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Academy voting process). That broad final electorate helps explain why a film with strong support across several crafts can overtake a specialist precursor narrative.
Quick Recap
Best Value
Prediction versus verdict
- Pre-show prediction: Based on information available before March 2, 2025; AP’s reported call centered on Anora with Conclave as a major threat.
- Should-win judgment: A stated critical preference; here, Anora.
- Official result: Anora won Best Picture and five Oscars.
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