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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →No. The graph Joe Rogan cited does not show that Earth is cooling today. It is a reconstruction of global temperatures across about 485 million years, based on a 2024 Science study. Study co-author Jessica Tierney said Rogan had misread what it means: the crucial point about modern warming is its speed, not that Earth’s climate has varied over geological time.
What Rogan said—and what the graph actually depicts
Rogan pointed to a Washington Post graphic accompanying coverage of the study and told Bernie Sanders, “Essentially they found that we’re in a cooling period… this was like a very inconvenient discovery, but they had to report the data.” That was Rogan’s characterization, not the study’s reported conclusion. The graphic visualizes a long-term temperature reconstruction; it is not a chart of recent annual measurements or evidence that the modern warming trend has reversed. Futurism’s account of the exchange and an Agence France-Presse fact check describe the claim and the study.
How to read a 485-million-year climate graph
The reconstruction covers roughly 485 million years of Earth’s history, spanning the Phanerozoic. The Washington Post reported that researchers combined fossil-based proxy evidence with climate models using data assimilation. These are indirect clues and modeling used to estimate ancient global temperatures—not hundreds of millions of years of direct thermometer readings. The paper, “A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature,” was published in Science in 2024 by Emily J. Judd and colleagues.
- The Washington Post reported that the analysis drew on more than 150,000 fossil evidence points. That is the study’s evidence base, not a count of independent direct temperature readings.
- The same report described an estimated average temperature of 36°C (96.8°F) at the reconstruction’s hottest. That estimate refers to an ancient warm interval, not today’s temperature.
On a chart whose horizontal axis compresses hundreds of millions of years, the recent past occupies only a tiny sliver. A line that looks small at the edge cannot, by itself, tell you whether temperatures rose or fell over the past few decades. The scale is designed to show deep-time patterns, not resolve the modern record. The Washington Post’s account of the study explains the reconstruction and its context.
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Why the rate of warming matters more than an ancient temperature peak
Two different questions are easy to confuse: how warm Earth was at some point in the distant past, and how quickly temperatures are changing now. Past warm periods show that Earth’s climate has varied; they do not establish that today’s trend is cooling, nor do they make the pace of current change unimportant.
Tierney, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Arizona and a study co-author, told The Guardian: “The temperature reconstruction is over millions of years. It’s not on a human timescale.” She added: “It’s all about the speed and we’ve never seen carbon dioxide and temperature rise as fast as now – even in big extinction events it was slower than this.” These are Tierney’s statements as quoted in Oliver Milman’s September 4, 2025 interview, not a claim that every detail of ancient climate change is known with precision. Read the Guardian interview.
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For comparison, The Guardian reported Tierney’s example of about 10°C of warming over roughly 50,000 years during the end-Permian event. The timescale matters: that ancient warming unfolded over tens of thousands of years, while the concern she raised is the unusually rapid pace of current change. A temperature magnitude stripped of its timescale is not a meaningful rate comparison.
What Tierney corrected
Tierney directly rejected Rogan’s interpretation. In the same Guardian interview, she said, “It’s dumb the way he’s interpreting this graph and if he wants to talk about it he should invite me onto the show instead of talking about it to Mel Gibson or Bernie Sanders.” She also said she was concerned that he was “isn’t giving the right message.” Her correction was about how the graph was being used: a deep-time reconstruction does not demonstrate that Earth is now cooling.
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What the study can—and cannot—establish
The long record documents substantial changes in Earth’s climate and offers estimates of ancient global temperatures. It does not rebut the evidence that modern warming is occurring or that human activity is driving it. AFP’s fact check notes that the study neither disproves nor questions record-rate modern warming driven by human activity.
There is also uncertainty in precise deep-time estimates. The Washington Post reported that climate scientist Michael Mann praised the ambition of the work while expressing skepticism about some of its specific quantitative conclusions. That caveat concerns the reconstruction’s numerical detail; it does not turn the graphic into evidence of a present-day cooling reversal.
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