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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesShort answer: The final forecast correctly called 22 categories outright, identified one of the two co-winners in Live Action Short Film, and missed only Cinematography. One Battle after Another ultimately won Best Picture, while Sinners supplied the night’s biggest prediction-versus-result surprise by taking Cinematography.
The 98th Oscars honored films released in 2025 and presented awards in all 24 competitive categories. Final voting ran from February 26 through March 5, 2026. All eligible Academy members could vote in every category during the final round; Best Picture had 10 nominees, while the other competitive categories had five nominees each.
What follows is both a prediction record and a results guide: the original final pick appears beside the official winner, with the confidence level referring to how strong the pre-show forecast was—not to any uncertainty about a ceremony that has already happened.
2026 Oscars predictions versus official winners
| Category | Final pre-show prediction | Pre-show case and confidence | Official winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | One Battle after Another | The race was effectively a 1A/1B contest with Sinners, but the Producers Guild win and BAFTA result gave One Battle after Another the edge. High. | One Battle after Another | Correct |
| Directing | Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another | Anderson had major directing wins from the Directors Guild, BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice Awards. TheWrap’s tracker gave him a 90% modeled probability. Very high. | Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another | Correct |
| Actor in a Leading Role | Michael B. Jordan, Sinners | Jordan was the final forecast’s leading actor pick as Sinners remained one of the season’s central contenders. High. | Michael B. Jordan, Sinners | Correct |
| Actress in a Leading Role | Jessie Buckley, Hamnet | TheWrap’s final tracker gave Buckley a 99% modeled win probability, making this one of the clearest acting calls. Very high. | Jessie Buckley, Hamnet | Correct |
| Actor in a Supporting Role | Sean Penn, One Battle after Another | The pick followed the film’s unusually strong overall package and late-season momentum. High. | Sean Penn, One Battle after Another | Correct |
| Actress in a Supporting Role | Amy Madigan, Weapons | Madigan was the final supporting-actress selection in a race that was less statistically settled than Lead Actress. Medium-high. | Amy Madigan, Weapons | Correct |
| Original Screenplay | Ryan Coogler, Sinners | Pre-show coverage identified Sinners as the dominant original-screenplay contender. High. | Ryan Coogler, Sinners | Correct |
| Adapted Screenplay | Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another | The final pick treated Anderson’s screenplay as one of the film’s strongest route-to-victory categories. High. | Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another | Correct |
| Cinematography | Michael Bauman, One Battle after Another | The forecast leaned on Bauman’s industry-award momentum, but this was the most exposed precursor-based call. Medium. | Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners | Miss |
| Film Editing | Andy Jurgensen, One Battle after Another | The film’s broad Best Picture package made editing a strong supporting prediction. High. | Andy Jurgensen, One Battle after Another | Correct |
| Production Design | Frankenstein | The final craft-category read positioned Frankenstein as the leading production-design choice. High. | Frankenstein | Correct |
| Costume Design | Frankenstein | The prediction extended Frankenstein’s apparent craft strength into Costume Design. High. | Frankenstein | Correct |
| Makeup and Hairstyling | Frankenstein | The film was the final pick for the category most directly aligned with its transformation and creature-work appeal. High. | Frankenstein | Correct |
| Sound | F1 | The final forecast separated the sound race from the Best Picture contest and selected F1. High. | F1 | Correct |
| Visual Effects | Avatar: Fire and Ash | The final pick was the large-scale effects contender most clearly associated with the category. High. | Avatar: Fire and Ash | Correct |
| Original Score | Ludwig Göransson, Sinners | The score was included in Sinners’s strongest overall awards package. High. | Ludwig Göransson, Sinners | Correct |
| Original Song | Golden, from KPop Demon Hunters | The final prediction selected the film’s breakout song contender. High. | Golden, from KPop Demon Hunters | Correct |
| Animated Feature Film | KPop Demon Hunters | The film was the final animated-feature selection and ultimately paired that win with Original Song. High. | KPop Demon Hunters | Correct |
| Documentary Feature Film | Mr. Nobody against Putin | The final slate selected the documentary that ultimately prevailed in the feature category. Medium-high. | Mr. Nobody against Putin | Correct |
| International Feature Film | Sentimental Value, Norway | The Norwegian entry was the final international-feature pick. High. | Sentimental Value, Norway | Correct |
| Animated Short Film | The Girl Who Cried Pearls | The final forecast selected the short that received the Academy’s award. Medium. | The Girl Who Cried Pearls | Correct |
| Documentary Short Film | All the Empty Rooms | The final prediction chose All the Empty Rooms in a category with less widely quantified public forecasting. Medium. | All the Empty Rooms | Correct |
| Live Action Short Film | The Singers | The prediction named one of the eventual winners, but the possibility of a shared result was not captured. Medium. | The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva | Partial: co-winner |
| Casting | One Battle after Another | The final forecast treated the film’s ensemble and overall awards strength as the category’s best indicator. High. | One Battle after Another | Correct |
The central race: One Battle after Another versus Sinners
The Best Picture contest was not a runaway. The Los Angeles Times characterized it as an effective 1A/1B race, with One Battle after Another holding the edge over Sinners late in the season.
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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →The deciding argument was not simply nomination count. Sinners led the field with 16 nominations, compared with 13 for One Battle after Another. But One Battle after Another won the Producers Guild Award and also prevailed at BAFTA. The Producers Guild uses a ranked voting system that has a meaningful structural similarity to Best Picture voting, making that result especially valuable as a guide.
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That combination—an unusually competitive rival, a major nomination advantage for Sinners, and a stronger Best Picture-style precursor profile for One Battle after Another—is why the final prediction gave Anderson’s film the advantage rather than treating the race as settled.
Why Paul Thomas Anderson was the safest top-category call
Directing was considerably clearer than Best Picture. TheWrap’s awards tracker listed Paul Thomas Anderson with a 90% modeled probability of winning and noted victories at the Directors Guild, BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice Awards.
That model was based on historical relationships between major precursor awards and the Oscars. It was useful evidence, but not a guarantee: awards precursors measure overlapping industry opinion rather than the Academy ballot itself. In this case, however, the final result confirmed the forecast, with Anderson winning Directing for One Battle after Another.
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The acting races were comparatively settled
The final week offered the clearest forecast in Actress in a Leading Role. TheWrap’s tracker placed Jessie Buckley at a 99% modeled win probability for Hamnet, and the Academy result confirmed that call.
The other three acting predictions also held: Michael B. Jordan won Leading Actor for Sinners, Sean Penn won Supporting Actor for One Battle after Another, and Amy Madigan won Supporting Actress for Weapons. The results gave the acting categories a cleaner finish than the Best Picture and Cinematography races.
The biggest miss: Cinematography
The prediction selected Michael Bauman for One Battle after Another, based on the film’s industry-award momentum. The Academy instead awarded Cinematography to Autumn Durald Arkapaw for Sinners.
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This was the clearest warning against converting a precursor sweep into certainty. A film can be the broader awards-season favorite while another nominee wins a specific craft category. The result also reinforced Sinners as more than a Best Picture runner-up: it took Cinematography, Leading Actor, Original Score, and Original Screenplay.
Where the major winners landed
- One Battle after Another: Best Picture, Directing, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Adapted Screenplay, and Casting.
- Sinners: Leading Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, and Original Screenplay.
- Frankenstein: Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
- KPop Demon Hunters: Animated Feature Film and Original Song.
- Avatar: Fire and Ash: Visual Effects.
- F1: Sound.
- Hamnet: Actress in a Leading Role.
- Weapons: Actress in a Supporting Role.
- Mr. Nobody against Putin: Documentary Feature Film.
- Sentimental Value: International Feature Film for Norway.
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls: Animated Short Film.
- All the Empty Rooms: Documentary Short Film.
- Live Action Short Film: The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva shared the award.
The six-category haul for One Battle after Another made it the night’s dominant film by total awards, while Sinners remained the evening’s most important competing package. Frankenstein led the craft categories, and KPop Demon Hunters completed a two-award pairing in animation and music.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this prediction record tells us
- Best Picture-style precursors mattered. The Producers Guild result was more informative than nomination totals alone because its ranked voting structure resembles the kind of preferential contest used for Best Picture.
- Directing precursors were unusually aligned. Anderson’s run across the Directors Guild, BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice Awards made Directing the most secure top-category prediction.
- Model probabilities are signals, not promises. A 90% directing forecast and a 99% actress forecast describe a pre-show edge; they do not eliminate the possibility of an upset.
- Category-specific outcomes can break from the overall narrative. Cinematography was the example: the forecast followed Bauman’s momentum, but Arkapaw and Sinners prevailed.
- A tie must be reported as a tie. Live Action Short Film did not produce one winner. The Academy’s result listed both The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva, so the original prediction was only partially complete.
Source note: The official winners and the two-way Live Action Short Film result are based on the Academy’s final results. The pre-ceremony analysis draws on the published Los Angeles Times Best Picture race coverage and TheWrap’s awards-tracker methodology and probabilities. Prediction confidence should not be confused with official outcome certainty.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Were these predictions written before the 2026 Oscars?
Yes. They were final pre-show predictions, prepared before the March 15, 2026 ceremony. The article has since been updated to show the official winners, so it now functions as a prediction-versus-results record rather than a live forecast.
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How many of the 2026 Oscars predictions were correct?
The slate correctly predicted 22 categories outright. It named one of the two winners in Live Action Short Film, making that a partial call, and missed Cinematography, which went to Autumn Durald Arkapaw for Sinners instead of Michael Bauman for One Battle after Another.
Why was One Battle after Another predicted to win Best Picture over Sinners?
The race was close, but One Battle after Another had the more persuasive Best Picture-style precursor case. It won the Producers Guild Award, which uses ranked voting comparable to Best Picture voting, and also won at BAFTA. Sinners had more nominations—16 compared with 13—but nomination totals alone did not determine the result.
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Who won the most awards at the 2026 Oscars?
One Battle after Another led with six awards: Best Picture, Directing, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Adapted Screenplay, and Casting.
The Bottom Line
Bottom line: The final forecast got almost the entire 98th Oscars slate right: 22 outright category calls, one partial call in a co-winner situation, and one genuine miss in Cinematography. One Battle after Another won Best Picture and led the ceremony, while Sinners proved that a film can lose the top prize yet still claim decisive victories in acting, writing, score, and cinematography.
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