NOAA’s latest short-range forecast, issued October 8, 2026, at 12:30 UTC, calls for geomagnetic storm levels of G1–G2 on October 9, with a peak three-hour planetary Kp of 5.67 (G2, moderate) during October 8–10. That raises the chance of aurora, but it does not establish which states will see it: the forecast peak falls below NOAA’s broad guideposts for lower-48 visibility, and the Kp-to-location relationship is approximate. Check the updated forecast and your local sky before heading out.
Which U.S. states may see the northern lights this week?
There is no reliable state-by-state prediction for this event in NOAA’s current forecast. People in northern locations have the best reason to monitor conditions, but a state name is not a visibility guarantee. NOAA’s October 8 three-day forecast expects elevated geomagnetic activity, especially on October 9; whether aurora is visible from a particular place also depends on darkness, clouds, and viewing conditions. NOAA’s three-day forecast is the relevant short-range outlook.
NOAA’s general guidance associates Kp 6–7 with possible visibility from the northern edge of the United States, and Kp 8–9 with possible overhead aurora over northern states. The forecast peak of Kp 5.67 is below those guideposts. NOAA cautions that the relationship between Kp and geographic visibility is approximate, so these ranges are context rather than hard boundaries. NOAA’s aurora viewing guidance explains the limits.
NOAA’s storm-scale examples name New York and Idaho for historical G2/Kp 6 events, Illinois and Oregon for G3/Kp 7, and Alabama and northern California for G4/Kp 8. These are examples of how far aurora has reached at those stronger levels—not a forecast for those states this week. NOAA’s space weather scales lists the examples.
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When is the forecast strongest?
The October 8 forecast puts the strongest three-hour interval at October 9, 09:00–12:00 UTC, with Kp 5.67. It forecasts Kp 5.00 from 03:00–06:00 UTC, Kp 4.33 from 06:00–09:00 UTC, and Kp 4.00 from 12:00–15:00 UTC that day. Convert those UTC intervals to your local time, then focus on intervals that overlap darkness where you are. The Kp forecast describes geomagnetic activity, not a guaranteed local display. NOAA’s three-day table provides the forecast intervals.
The longer-range outlook issued October 5 had listed a maximum Kp of 2 for October 9; NOAA’s newer October 8 short-range forecast raised that peak to 5.67. For a fast-changing event, use the most recent short-range forecast rather than relying on an older outlook. NOAA’s 27-day outlook shows the earlier forecast.
How to check whether conditions are improving near you
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Open NOAA’s 30-minute aurora forecast close to your planned viewing time. It uses the OVATION model and provides a 30–90 minute forecast of auroral activity, so check it again as conditions change.
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Look at the map for activity near your location and remember that it estimates auroral intensity and extent, not whether your sky is clear or your horizon is unobstructed.
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Check a local weather forecast for cloud cover before traveling. Clouds can block the aurora even when geomagnetic conditions are favorable.
NOAA says bright aurora can sometimes be visible from as far as 1,000 km away when conditions are right. Treat that as a conditional outer possibility, not a promise that it will be visible from any particular town. NOAA’s viewing guide describes the factors that affect visibility.
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Choose a dark location away from city lights, with an open view toward the north.
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Plan around local darkness. NOAA says aurora is usually best within an hour or two of midnight—roughly 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. local time—though stronger activity can extend viewing toward evening and morning.
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Check cloud cover and local conditions before driving. A favorable space-weather forecast cannot overcome a cloudy sky.
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Keep monitoring NOAA’s short-term forecast near the viewing window; the outlook can change as conditions develop.
Higher Kp generally means stronger geomagnetic activity, which can bring aurora farther from the magnetic poles and make it brighter. But location, darkness, timing, and local sky conditions still matter, so a state’s name alone is not a useful predictor.
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