Sebastian Wernicke’s TED2010 talk is a tongue-in-cheek look at applying statistical analysis to TEDTalks and their user ratings in search of an “optimum TEDTalk.” Its premise is an entertaining demonstration of how to analyze a cultural product—not evidence that a particular formula causes a talk to succeed.
What is “Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)” about?
TED describes Wernicke’s talk as an attempt to analyze TEDTalks and audience ratings statistically, including responses such as “Jaw-dropping,” “Unconvincing,” and “Funny,” to find a metric for an “optimum TEDTalk.” TED characterizes the exercise as tongue-in-cheek. The talk was presented at TED2010 and is listed by TED under February 2010.
The official summary establishes the broad premise, but it does not establish that any particular talk feature causes higher ratings. Treat the “optimum” as part of the playful framing, not as a validated production recipe or a guarantee of audience response. TED’s official talk page provides the synopsis and a transcript link.
Who first said “lies, damned lies and statistics”?
The saying’s origin is uncertain. Mark Twain helped popularize a version of it and attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli, but the historical account from the University of York says Twain did not originate the phrase and was probably mistaken about Disraeli. Twain’s own source is unknown.
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Earlier examples make a confident single attribution difficult. Paul F. Velleman discusses an 1892 report of a speech by Arthur James Balfour and Leonard Courtney’s 1895 address. Courtney referred to “the Wise Statesman” without naming that person. These examples show the phrase was in circulation earlier than Twain’s popular attribution, but they do not prove who coined it. The University of York’s historical discussion and Velleman’s 2008 article explain the attribution problem.
How can statistics mislead without being inherently dishonest?
Statistics can mislead when someone selectively chooses what to count, how to define it, which denominator to use, or which results to report. Those choices shape what a number appears to mean. A rating category, for example, is a measure of a particular audience response; by itself, it does not establish why a talk received that response or whether changing one feature would change the rating.
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The distinction is between using data to support a warranted conclusion and presenting a number as if it proves more than it can. Velleman’s point is not that statistics are lies, but that analysis involves judgments and should be guided by an honest search for truth. As he writes in his 2008 Journal of Statistics Education article, “The principle guiding these judgments should be the honest search for truth about the world, and the principle of seeking such truth should have a central place in Statistics courses.”
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does Courtney’s earlier version add?
Velleman reproduces this sentence from Leonard H. Courtney’s 1895 address: “After all, facts are facts, and although we may quote one to another with a chuckle the words of the Wise Statesman, ‘Lies—damn lies—and statistics,’ still there are some easy figures the simplest must understand, and the astutest cannot wriggle out of.” The quotation is Courtney’s wording as reproduced by Velleman; it does not identify the “Wise Statesman” or settle the saying’s origin.
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