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A 2023 study of 98,724 public UFO reports found clusters of higher reporting across much of the western United States and in the far Northeast. Those “hotspots” are clusters of reports—not confirmed concentrations of unusual craft, and certainly not proof of extraterrestrial visitors.
What the study counted
In “An environmental analysis of public UAP sightings and sky view potential,” published in Scientific Reports on December 14, 2023, University of Utah researchers Richard M. Medina and Simon C. Brewer, with Sean M. Kirkpatrick, analyzed reports submitted to the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC). The study’s analytic sample comprised 98,724 reports from the conterminous United States between 2001 and 2020.
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The researchers had extracted a larger set of 122,983 U.S. reports spanning June 1930 to June 2022, then limited the analysis by geography and period. These figures count public submissions, not verified events or identified objects. Read the paper in Scientific Reports.
Where did reports cluster?
The map showed higher population-standardized reporting clusters across much of the West and in the far Northeast, with isolated clusters elsewhere. Clusters of lower reporting appeared across the central plains and Southeast.
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To make the map, the authors calculated reports per 10,000 residents for each county and applied the Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering index. The analysis treated each county alongside its eight nearest neighboring counties. A hotspot therefore means a geographic cluster of relatively high report rates, not a ranking of confirmed sightings or anomalous activity.
What might be associated with reporting rates?
The study also modeled county-level report rates against measures of sky visibility and potential airborne activity. Its findings were broadly consistent with the idea that people submit more reports when they have more opportunity to see things:
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- Less light pollution and less tree canopy were associated with more reports.
- Measures of airports and military installations also pointed toward more reporting.
- Cloud cover had no credible positive or negative relationship with reported sightings in the model.
The authors summarized the result this way: “The model results find credible correlations between variables that suggest people see more ‘phenomena’ when they have more opportunity to.” That is an association in area-level data; it does not show that any one factor caused a report or explain what a particular witness saw.
Hotspot mapping and environmental modeling answer different questions
| Analysis | Question it addresses | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Hotspot mapping | Where do population-standardized reports form geographic clusters? | Whether reports describe verified events or identified objects. |
| Environmental modeling | Which measures of visibility or potential airborne activity correlate with county report rates? | That a factor caused a report, or that a reported object was extraterrestrial. |
Why the map is not a map of alien activity
NUFORC reports are voluntary submissions. People must know about and be able to access the reporting channel; the authors note that internet access may differ by place, particularly in rural areas and earlier in the study period. Some entries may also have been made retrospectively or contain inaccurate dates or locations. The researchers caution that the validity of individual reports is uncertain.
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County-level analysis makes it possible to compare broad areas, but it can conceal local differences. The paper considers ordinary natural and human-made objects plausible explanations worth investigating; it does not identify the reports case by case. Its findings describe patterns in where people reported phenomena, not evidence that one region has more extraterrestrial visitors.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the findings can—and cannot—tell readers
The study offers a geographic starting point for investigating what people may see and report. It suggests that conditions affecting visibility, along with potential sources of airborne activity, may help explain some of the pattern. It cannot tell a reader what caused an individual sighting, and a statistical hotspot should not be mistaken for a confirmed UFO event.
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