Recommended Free Tools
The 96th Academy Awards took place on March 10, 2024, honoring films released in 2023. Before the ceremony, Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle made predictions across all 23 categories. This retrospective sets their picks beside the official winners: it is a record of pre-show forecasts, not a current-season prediction guide.
How the predictions and results are compared
The Academy’s official 2024 ceremony page records the nominees and winners. AP’s full predictions from film writers Jake Coyle and Lindsey Bahr are attributed opinions published before the ceremony, not Academy guidance. A pick counts as correct here only when that writer named the eventual winner. Agreement between the two writers is noted as agreement, not as a probability estimate.
The table includes all 23 award categories. The AP article supplies the two writers’ picks for 11 categories; the remaining categories show the official outcome without attributing a forecast that is not established here.
Predictions and official winners in all 23 categories
| Category | Lindsey Bahr’s pick | Jake Coyle’s pick | Official winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | Oppenheimer — correct | Oppenheimer — correct | Oppenheimer |
| Actress in a Leading Role | Emma Stone, Poor Things — correct | Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon | Emma Stone, Poor Things |
| Actor in a Leading Role | Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer — correct | Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer — correct | Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer |
| Actress in a Supporting Role | Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers — correct | Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers — correct | Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers |
| Actor in a Supporting Role | Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer — correct | Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer — correct | Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer |
| Directing | Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer — correct | Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer — correct | Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer |
| Documentary Feature Film | 20 Days in Mariupol — correct | 20 Days in Mariupol — correct | 20 Days in Mariupol |
| Documentary Short Film | Not stated | Not stated | The Last Repair Shop |
| International Feature Film | The Zone of Interest — correct | The Zone of Interest — correct | The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) |
| Animated Feature Film | The Boy and the Heron — correct | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | The Boy and the Heron |
| Animated Short Film | Not stated | Not stated | “WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” |
| Live Action Short Film | Not stated | Not stated | The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar |
| Original Screenplay | Past Lives | Anatomy of a Fall — correct | Anatomy of a Fall |
| Adapted Screenplay | Oppenheimer | American Fiction — correct | American Fiction |
| Cinematography | Not stated | Not stated | Oppenheimer |
| Costume Design | Not stated | Not stated | Poor Things |
| Film Editing | Not stated | Not stated | Oppenheimer |
| Makeup and Hairstyling | Not stated | Not stated | Poor Things |
| Music (Original Score) | Not stated | Not stated | Oppenheimer |
| Music (Original Song) | Not stated | Not stated | “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie |
| Production Design | Not stated | Not stated | Poor Things |
| Sound | Not stated | Not stated | The Zone of Interest |
| Visual Effects | Not stated | Not stated | Godzilla Minus One |
Where the forecasters agreed—and differed
Agreement on major winners
Bahr and Coyle both picked Oppenheimer for Best Picture and Christopher Nolan for directing. They also agreed on the four acting winners shown in the table, along with Documentary Feature and International Feature. Their shared picks in those categories all matched the Academy’s results.
Free tools Windows power users keep installed
One-click scans. No signup required.
#1 Best Overall
Three head-to-head differences
The writers split on Actress in a Leading Role, Animated Feature Film, and both screenplay awards. Bahr’s picks of Emma Stone and The Boy and the Heron matched the eventual winners; Coyle’s picks in those two categories did not. For Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay, Coyle picked the winners, while Bahr chose Past Lives and Oppenheimer, respectively.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this comparison can—and cannot—show
For the 11 categories where both AP writers’ picks are available here, Bahr picked 9 winners and Coyle picked 8. These are simple counts of correct category picks, not odds, a measure of forecasting skill across award seasons, or a claim about how confident either writer was. The figures do not cover all 23 categories because the cited AP prediction details used for this comparison establish picks for only 11.
Rank #2
- Keep track of everything from attendance to test scores
- Spiral bound
- Measures 8-1/2" x 11"
The ceremony covered 23 categories, as stated in ABC Press’s January 23, 2024 announcement of the 96th Oscars nominations. For a complete official winner and nominee record, consult the Academy’s event page linked above.
Quick Recap
Best Value
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
