Rotten Tomatoes’ February 26, 2025 Oscar forecast got several major races right, but its Best Picture pick missed: the article backed Conclave, with Anora as a possible spoiler, and the Academy ultimately named Anora Best Picture. This retrospective compares the forecast with the official winners at the 97th Academy Awards, held March 2, 2025, and distinguishes the article’s picks from its stated method.
What Rotten Tomatoes predicted
Jacqueline Coley’s article was published four days before the 97th Academy Awards, a ceremony honoring films released in 2024. It offered picks in 15 categories and framed them as uncertain editorial guesses, not guaranteed outcomes. Coley said she considered critical reception, guild and other awards-season results, and what she was hearing from voters and industry people. The article did not provide a formal scoring model or forecast probabilities.
The article’s main pick in each category alongside the winner recorded by the Academy:
| Category | Rotten Tomatoes’ pick | Official winner |
|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | Conclave; Anora identified as a possible spoiler | Anora |
| Actor in a Leading Role | Adrien Brody, The Brutalist | Adrien Brody, The Brutalist |
| Actress in a Leading Role | Demi Moore, The Substance | Mikey Madison, Anora |
| Actor in a Supporting Role | Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain | Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain |
| Actress in a Supporting Role | Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez | Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez |
| Animated Feature Film | The Wild Robot | Flow |
| Cinematography | The Brutalist | The Brutalist |
| Costume Design | Wicked | Wicked |
| Directing | Sean Baker, Anora | Sean Baker, Anora |
| Documentary Feature Film | No Other Land | No Other Land |
| International Feature Film | Emilia Pérez | I’m Still Here |
| Music (Original Score) | The Brutalist | The Brutalist |
| Music (Original Song) | “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight | “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez |
| Production Design | Wicked | Wicked |
| Visual Effects | Dune: Part Two | Dune: Part Two |
| Writing (Adapted Screenplay) | Conclave | Conclave |
| Writing (Original Screenplay) | Anora | Anora |
Counting the main pick in each of the 17 listed categories, 12 matched the Academy’s winner. That count treats the Best Picture spoiler as a secondary note, not as the article’s primary pick. The results show a mixed record rather than an all-or-nothing verdict: the forecast missed Best Picture and several other races while correctly identifying winners including Brody, Culkin, Saldaña, and Baker.
#1 Best Overall
How to read the prediction and its scorecard
The Academy’s official 97th Oscars record is the appropriate source for checking the winners. It lists the event as the 97th Academy Awards, held Sunday, March 2, 2025, at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood, and provides the winners and nominees. Compare each named main pick directly with that record; note a listed spoiler separately rather than silently counting it as the primary prediction.
The Rotten Tomatoes article described an awards-season judgment based on critical response, results from guilds and other awards groups, and reported voter and industry buzz. Those are signals people may weigh when making a forecast, not guarantees of an outcome. Its own framing emphasized uncertainty, describing the selections as “best, highly educated guesses.”
Tomatometer percentages displayed alongside films in the article are critics’ scores, not probabilities of winning an Oscar. The article does not state odds for its picks, so its accuracy is best described by comparing predictions and winners category by category—not by treating review scores as forecast confidence.
Quick Recap
Rank #3
Sources
- Rotten Tomatoes, “Rotten Tomatoes Predicts the 2025 Oscars,” February 26, 2025
- Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, “The 97th Academy Awards | 2025”
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