Nassim Nicholas Taleb - What is a "Black Swan?"

  • Published 1 month ago
  • Not Rated

The black swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes out as a surprise, has a major effect, and it often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

Covid-19 crisis, for example, is not a black swan event. The term black swan is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist. This saying became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb developed the theory. There are three factors that make an event a black swan event.

Those are the disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that we cannot understand or expect. These are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, or technology.

The second factor is the non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods. And last, the psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively.

After the black swan event, the reality is changed.

From Around the Web

Related Videos

Religion
taoism documentary
youtube icon
01:28:16
New

Taoism is a Chinese philosophy attributed to Lao Tzu, which contributed to the folk religion of the people primarily in the rural areas of China. But it rose from religion fo...

  • 12
  • 1 hour ago
  • Not Rated

Fear is an unpleasant emotion caused by the threat of danger, pain, or harm. But imagine what you can achieve without fear. What are you afraid of? Have you tried to combat y...

  • 323
  • 1 month ago
  • Not Rated

Shaolin Kung Fu is among the oldest institutionalized styles of Chinese martial arts. The technique was developed and originated in the Buddhist Shaolin temple in Henan provi...

  • 944
  • 7 months ago
  • Not Rated
Philosophy
machiavelli theory
youtube icon
59:13

Machiavelli is widely considered as one of the most influential philosophers when it comes to politics. His grand work, “The Prince” is a 16th century political treatise....

  • 4,345
  • 2 years ago
  • 3.3(4)
Avatar

4,243 Videos / 12,454,338 Views
Tags

Related Articles
The World Tree is mytheme in many Middle Eastern religions. It is most often portrayed as an archetype of the trees of k...
  • 284
  • 2 weeks ago
The pineal gland is believed to play a vital role in consciousness. Detoxifying it can be helpful in attaining higher le...
  • 416
  • 3 weeks ago
He argued that morals don’t exist and we shouldn’t pretend they do. They are just a façade to cover up the real mot...
  • 1,523
  • 6 months ago
Druids believed that the dragon’s power affected the lay of the land. Their belief was that the path the dragons took ...
  • 9,862
  • 8 months ago